Conclave 2025: Two of Pope Francis’ Possible Successors Uncovered — One of Them Has an Unexpected Hobby

On April 21, 2025, Pope Francis passed away at 88, leaving his position empty in the Vatican. The conclave is currently underway to choose the new head of the Catholic Church, and two candidates have come out strong. Here’s what we know about the process and possible candidates.

The Voting Process

The Vatican has a decree that outlines the timing regulations for beginning a conclave after the papal seat becomes vacant. In part, the document states that from the moment the papacy becomes vacant, fifteen full days must pass before the conclave to elect a new pope begins.

This period allows time for all cardinal electors to arrive. However, if all the electors are already present, the College of Cardinals has the authority to start the conclave earlier. They may also delay it a few days beyond the fifteen, but only for serious reasons.

Once twenty days have passed since the vacancy began, all present cardinal electors are required to begin the election. The voting process begins with the distribution of ballots marked with the Latin phrase “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I elect as Supreme Pontiff”), where cardinals write the name of their chosen candidate.

Roles are assigned by lot: three scrutineers to count votes, three infirmarii to assist sick cardinals, and three revisers to verify the count. All non-electors exit the chapel before voting begins, and the doors are sealed.

Each cardinal elector, in order of precedence, casts their vote at the altar while reciting an oath invoking Christ as witness to the sincerity of their choice. Votes are collected in a chalice, and additional provisions are in place for those unable to walk or attend in person.

After all ballots are cast, they are counted and verified. If the count does not match the number of electors, the vote is nullified and repeated. Valid ballots are read aloud, tallied, pierced, threaded, and preserved. To elect a new pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority, at least 89 of the 133 votes in the conclave.

Voting occurs up to four times daily, with ballots burned in a cast-iron stove first used in 1939. A second stove emits smoke signals from a chimney above the Sistine Chapel: black for no result, white for a successful election.

After every set of rounds without a result, pauses for prayer and spiritual exhortation are introduced. If 21 votes pass without success, the process narrows the choice to the top two candidates, though they cannot vote for themselves, and a two-thirds majority is still required.

Upon election, the new pope changes into white vestments in the “Room of Tears” before being introduced to the world. As the vote continues, some possible candidates were mentioned.

Who Might Be the Next Pope

Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)

Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, is perceived as a “continuity candidate” closely aligned with the late Pope Francis. He is a seasoned diplomat who has led sensitive negotiations.

Parolin’s critics label him an ideologue too focused on diplomacy, while his supporters view him as a principled, peace-seeking realist.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle (Philippines, 67)

Tagle would make history as the first Asian pope, fitting for a region with a rapidly growing Catholic population. Formerly Manila’s archbishop, he was once believed to be Francis’s favored successor due to his progressive views.

Though critical of the Church’s stance on homosexual and divorced couples, Tagle maintains opposition to abortion rights in his home country. His star has dimmed recently, with signs suggesting he may have fallen out of favor within the Vatican hierarchy.

Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)

Turkson, a veteran cardinal and advocate for social justice, could become the first Black pope in centuries. He is known for his vocal positions on climate change, poverty, and economic inequality.

While traditionally conservative on Church doctrines regarding marriage and priesthood, he has criticized the severity of anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa. He also remains outspoken against corruption and human rights abuses, showing a balance of tradition and reform.

Robert Francis Prevost (United States, 69)

Prevost, a moderate American cardinal, faces the usual skepticism reserved for US papal contenders due to geopolitical concerns. Nonetheless, his influence has grown following his 2023 elevation by Francis and his role in the Dicastery for Bishops.

He brings global Church experience, notably from missionary work in Peru, and holds respected leadership credentials from his time heading the Augustinian order. His profile marks him as a serious, albeit unconventional, candidate.

Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)

A stalwart conservative, Erdő stands in ideological contrast to Francis. He is seen as a potential pivot away from the progressive papacy. An intellectual and cultural figure, he garnered support from the late Cardinal George Pell, who admired his legalist stance.

In 2015, Erdő drew attention by indirectly aligning with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in rejecting Francis’s appeal to churches to shelter migrants, reinforcing his traditionalist credentials.

Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)

Zuppi, a key figure on the Church’s progressive side, has been a vocal advocate for social justice and peace, echoing Francis’s priorities. Appointed a cardinal in 2019 and later a Vatican envoy to Ukraine, he played a diplomatic role in seeking peace during the war.

He met both Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox church, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ally, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zuppi’s liberal approach to same-sex relationships and active humanitarian engagement positions him as a forward-looking candidate.

José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça (Portugal, 59)

Tolentino is one of the youngest candidates mentioned, which could be a disadvantage in a field where longevity matters. He is closely aligned with the late Francis and holds modern views that have stirred debate, including openness to same-sex relationships and ties to a pro-choice Benedictine feminist.

Despite his youth, he is recognized for urging the Church to engage constructively with modern culture, aligning with Francis’s inclusive vision.

Mario Grech (Malta, 68)

Initially known for traditional views, Grech evolved after Francis’s election, adopting more progressive positions. He has spoken in favor of ordaining female deacons and has taken moral stances against European political decisions limiting humanitarian aid to migrants.

His capacity to grow ideologically has drawn praise, suggesting adaptability and a broadening of vision under Francis’s influence.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)

Serving as the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem since 2020, Pizzaballa has been a pivotal advocate for Christians in the Holy Land. His humanitarian gesture—offering himself in exchange for children held hostage by Hamas in 2023—highlighted his moral courage.

He later visited Gaza after lengthy negotiations. Though he’s not known for provocative theological stances, his pastoral leadership in conflict zones enhances his stature.

Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79)

Sarah, a deeply conservative figure, has been a prominent critic of modern cultural shifts, warning against “gender ideology” and Islamic extremism. His co-authored 2020 book defending priestly celibacy was widely seen as a direct challenge to Francis.

He previously sought to shape Vatican influence as an alternative moral authority. Despite his age, his unwavering orthodoxy and intellectual gravitas make him a defining voice among tradition.

According to reports, by May 7, 2025, both Polymarket and Kalshi have placed Parolin in the lead. Bettors on Polymarket, an offshore cryptocurrency-based betting site, have wagered more than $21 million, while those on Kalshi, a prediction market platform legally authorized to accept bets in the US, have bet $8 million.

Parolin is generally considered more moderate than the liberal-leaning Francis, and papal experts noted him as a likely candidate. He had a 31% chance of winning the papacy on Polymarket and 32% on Kalshi.

However, Tagle, who has drawn comparisons with the late pope, ranked second with 20% odds on Polymarket and a 21% chance on Kalshi. Zuppi and Pizzaballa rank third with eight percent and fourth with nine percent on Polymarket, while their positions are swapped on Kalshi.

Turkson ranks fifth on Polymarket with seven percent odds, while Erdő ranks fifth on Kalshi with a seven percent chance. Here’s what we know about the two leading candidates deemed as the late Pope Francis’ possible successors.

The Two Strongest Contenders for Papacy

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Parolin was born January 17, 1955, in Schiavon, northern Italy. After entering the seminary at 14 and being ordained at 25, he pursued canon law and entered Vatican diplomatic service, with postings in Nigeria and Mexico. He later managed Church relations with multiple countries, including China, from Rome.

The cardinal has also been involved in other controversies, including the Vatican’s financial scandal, the Order of Malta crisis, and Spain’s Franco memorial negotiations—though never indicted, his leadership has been questioned.

Fluent in several languages and close to Pope Francis, Parolin is seen as a pragmatic and discreet figure who might continue the late leader’s reforms with more subtlety. Despite lacking parish-level pastoral experience, he is respected for his global outlook, diplomatic skill, and long tenure in Church governance.

He is one of the most familiar figures to the 133 cardinal electors due to his extensive travel and longstanding role in Vatican diplomacy. Known for his mild-mannered, pragmatic style, he is widely viewed as a steady hand.

He’s neither overtly conservative nor progressive, and has managed delicate political situations and often stepped in to smooth over controversies caused by Pope Francis’s public remarks.

Parolin’s diplomatic track record includes managing sensitive relations with global leaders and navigating controversial moments, such as clarifying the pope’s remarks on Gaza and Ukraine to foreign officials.

Despite never having led a diocese, his defenders argue his global diplomatic engagements have given him deep exposure to the Church’s universal needs. However, his critics, particularly from conservative circles in the US and Asia, oppose his role in the 2018 secret agreement with China, which grants Beijing influence in appointing Catholic bishops.

He has also faced scrutiny over his department’s financial oversight, notably involving a failed $140 million London real estate deal that led to a Vatican corruption trial. Though Parolin testified, he was not accused of wrongdoing.

Seen by some as lacking Francis’s charisma, Parolin is nonetheless respected for his competence and calm demeanor, with one insider likening him to “Clark Kent without the Superman part”—industrious, steady, and unflashy.

The cardinal visited Francis when he was in the hospital and also helped seal the papal apartments after he died. He also helped welcome cardinals he knew from around the world to the pope’s funeral.

Parolin was seen talking to former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., President Zelensky, and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy. Leading up to the conclave, he celebrated an outdoor Mass for tens of thousands of faithful on the steps of St. Peter’s Basilica.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Born on June 21, 1957, Tagle, known affectionately as “Chito,” hails from a well-off Filipino-Chinese background. He was originally on a path to become a physician before entering the seminary, influenced by Jesuit mentors.

Ordained in 1982, he earned advanced theological degrees in the US. He became known for his association with the Bologna School, which views the Second Vatican Council as a decisive break from earlier Church traditions.

His ecclesiastical rise included serving as bishop of Imus and later archbishop of Manila. Elevated to cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012, Tagle held leadership roles in major synods and global organizations like Caritas Internationalis. However, Pope Francis removed him from the latter’s leadership in 2022.

Since 2019, he has served in Rome. He first served as prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and then as pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. Tagle is often seen as the “Asian Francis,” reflecting pastoral warmth, emotional openness, and progressive leanings.

While he strongly opposes abortion and euthanasia, his views on Communion, homosexuality, and interreligious dialogue are more nuanced and have drawn both praise and criticism. His involvement in rituals like the 2019 Pachamama event and vague theological statements has raised questions among traditionalists.

In 2025, a controversial report alleged Tagle’s indirect involvement in gambling via proxies in Macao, casting a shadow over his candidacy. Still, his global stature, experience, and alignment with Pope Francis‘s vision keep him in consideration, though his youth and perceived ambiguity on moral clarity may reduce his chances.

Fluent in multiple languages, Tagle remains a notable figure with both devoted followers and skeptical critics. He is admired for his down-to-earth style—riding public transport, dining with the poor, and enthusiastically singing and dancing, earning him the nickname “karaoke priest.”

In April 2025, a video of him dressed down in casual clothing while singing on stage went on the rounds on X. The post of him belting out John Lennon’s “Imagine” brought up questions about him betraying Catholic teachings because of the song’s lyrics.

However, it was reported that Tagle altered the lyrics to avoid including anything against religion. Seeing the clip, one person said, “Karaoke in the Vatican every Friday night… Pontifical High Mass hitting like crazy every time…May God grant us a pope who has the karaoke singing genes embedded in him…. [sic]”

Another commented, “Pinoy Papa, let’s gooooo [sic],” while someone else also approved, writing, “Karaoke every Friday night.” He appeared in another jolly clip that same month, singing and gesturing with his hands and fingers while dressed in his cardinal clothing.

Seeing the clip, one fan stated, “HE IS THE ONE.” A netizen questioned, “how can you not like him … [sic],” adding, “Tagle forever ❣️.” Someone else confessed, “I love this man. It’s what we need. 👍🏻❤️.”

Unfortunately, the cardinal was judged harshly that month for dancing with a statue of Jesus at an event. One critic wrote, “Zero tolerance for this.” The same person also noted, “Mass isn’t a talent show for your culture. Christ’s death isn’t your excuse for a dance party. Reverence isn’t ‘ignorance’ it’s [sic] the minimum God deserves. Keep coping. The sacred will survive your tantrum.”

Someone else added, “If he is chosen as Pope, consider the damage that these seeds of distrust could cause in the hearts of many. We must be careful not to turn a possible anointed leader of the Church into an enemy through careless words. Please be mindful not to sow division where unity is needed most.”

While another remarked, “Ok ok ok Dear Lord Jesus Christ please Tagle No!! Papachito NO!! [sic]”

Critics also argue he’s been too passive, with some pointing to the lack of published protocols in Manila. Tagle was also seen as too cautious in addressing former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on illegal substances, initially remaining silent before later condemning the killings in a 2017 letter.

He opposes abortion and the Philippines’ reproductive health law but avoids confrontational rhetoric. If elected pope, he would be the first Asian in the role and a source of immense pride for the Philippines, a devout Catholic nation that has long felt peripheral to Vatican power.

Tagle is praised for listening to the marginalized and embodying a Church that is pastoral and compassionate.

As the conclave continues, anticipation grows around the frontrunners. Whoever is chosen will shape the Church’s direction for years to come.